Free Template

Scenario Planning Template

Model best-case, base-case, and worst-case scenarios with automatic variance calculations. Define key assumptions for each scenario and see the full P&L impact side by side. Includes a probability-weighted expected value calculation.

What's included

Everything in this template

  • Three scenario framework (base, upside, downside)
  • Assumption matrix with key driver inputs per scenario
  • Side-by-side P&L comparison
  • Automatic variance calculation between scenarios
  • Probability-weighted expected value
  • Sensitivity analysis on key drivers

Template preview

See the structure

fx=SUMPRODUCT(Scenario_Values, Probabilities)
Metric
Bear
Base
Bull
Revenue
£1.1M
£1.4M
£1.8M
Gross Margin
58%
62%
65%
EBITDA
£80k
£180k
£310k
Headcount
35
42
50
Cash (YE)
£200k
£380k
£580k

Step by step

How to use this template

1

Define your scenarios

Start with three scenarios: base (most likely), upside (things go well), and downside (things go poorly). Name them clearly and describe the narrative for each.

2

Identify key drivers

Select the 5-8 assumptions that have the biggest impact on your financial outcomes — revenue growth, churn, headcount, pricing, and unit costs.

3

Set assumption values per scenario

For each driver, enter the assumed value under each scenario. The template calculates the full P&L for each scenario automatically.

4

Assign probabilities

Assign a probability to each scenario (must sum to 100%). The template calculates a probability-weighted expected value.

5

Present to stakeholders

Use the side-by-side comparison to facilitate discussion with your board or leadership team. Focus on the decisions that change between scenarios.

Watch out

Common mistakes to avoid

Making the downside scenario unrealistically mild — it should genuinely stress-test the business

Changing too many variables at once, making it hard to attribute differences to specific drivers

Not assigning probabilities, which makes scenarios harder to compare objectively

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FAQ

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