Free Template

Revenue Forecast Template

A driver-based revenue model that builds your top-line forecast from core assumptions — new customers, average revenue per user, retention rates, and expansion. Supports subscription (ARR/MRR), transactional, and recurring revenue models.

What's included

Everything in this template

  • Driver-based revenue assumptions (customers, ARPU, churn)
  • New business, expansion, and contraction modelling
  • ARR and MRR calculations for subscription businesses
  • Cohort retention analysis
  • Revenue waterfall visualisation data
  • Scenario toggle for bull/base/bear cases

Template preview

See the structure

fx=Customers * ARPU * (1 - Churn) + Expansion
Driver
Q1
Q2
Q3
Customers
180
210
245
ARPU
£520
£535
£550
Churn
3.2%
2.8%
2.5%
Expansion
£12k
£15k
£18k
Revenue
£94k
£112k
£135k

Step by step

How to use this template

1

Define your revenue drivers

Identify the key inputs that determine revenue — customer count, pricing, retention rate, and expansion rate. These are your model drivers.

2

Set baseline assumptions

Enter current values for each driver and your growth assumptions. Use historical data where available and industry benchmarks where not.

3

Model scenarios

Create bull, base, and bear scenarios by varying the key drivers. This gives you a range of outcomes rather than a single point estimate.

4

Validate against pipeline

Cross-reference your forecast with your sales pipeline. Ensure the assumed new customer numbers are achievable given current pipeline coverage.

5

Update monthly with actuals

Each month, update actual customer numbers, ARPU, and churn. Recalibrate your assumptions based on observed trends.

Watch out

Common mistakes to avoid

Assuming constant month-on-month growth rates without adjusting for seasonality or market maturity

Underestimating churn — even small churn rates compound significantly over 12 months

Not modelling contraction (downgrades) separately from churn (cancellations)

Ignoring the lag between signing a customer and recognising revenue

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FAQ

Frequently asked questions