Forecasting

What Is Monthly Recurring Revenue?

Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) is the predictable, normalised revenue a subscription business earns each month. It is calculated by summing all active subscription values on a monthly basis. MRR is the foundational metric for SaaS and subscription businesses, driving revenue forecasts, valuations, and growth analysis.

Formula

MRR = Sum of all active monthly subscription values; Net New MRR = New MRR + Expansion MRR - Contraction MRR - Churned MRR

In Depth

MRR is the heartbeat of any subscription business. Unlike one-time revenue, MRR represents committed, recurring income that the company can reasonably expect to continue receiving each month, barring cancellations. This predictability makes it the primary metric for SaaS financial planning.

MRR is calculated by summing the monthly value of all active subscriptions. Annual contracts should be normalised to monthly values (divide by 12). Multi-year contracts are treated the same way. One-time fees, professional services revenue, and usage-based overages are typically excluded.

MRR movement is analysed through its components: New MRR (from new customers), Expansion MRR (upgrades, upsells, cross-sells to existing customers), Contraction MRR (downgrades), and Churn MRR (cancellations). Net New MRR = New + Expansion - Contraction - Churn. This decomposition reveals the health of the business beyond headline growth.

For FP&A teams, MRR is the starting point for revenue forecasting. Building a bottoms-up MRR forecast involves modelling new customer acquisition (from sales pipeline), churn rates (historical or assumed), and expansion rates (from upsell motions). This granularity enables accurate revenue projections and sensitivity analysis.

UK SaaS companies should note that MRR and recognised revenue may differ due to accounting standards. IFRS 15 / FRS 102 Section 23 may require revenue recognition adjustments for contracts with variable consideration, discounts, or bundled deliverables.

Real-World Example

A UK SaaS company starts January with £250K MRR. During the month, it adds 12 new customers (£18K New MRR), upgrades 8 existing customers (£6K Expansion MRR), sees 3 downgrades (£2K Contraction MRR), and loses 5 customers (£8K Churned MRR). Net New MRR is £14K, bringing January closing MRR to £264K. ARR grows from £3.0M to £3.17M.

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FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions