Forecasting

What Is Churn Rate?

Churn rate measures the percentage of customers or revenue lost over a given period. Customer churn counts lost customers; revenue churn measures lost recurring revenue. For subscription businesses, churn is the primary drag on growth and the key determinant of customer lifetime value and long-term business sustainability.

Formula

Customer Churn Rate = (Customers Lost / Starting Customers) x 100; Revenue Churn Rate = (MRR Lost / Starting MRR) x 100

In Depth

Churn is the leaky bucket of subscription businesses. No matter how fast a company acquires new customers, high churn ensures they flow out almost as quickly. Understanding, measuring, and reducing churn is arguably the most important FP&A and operational challenge for any recurring revenue business.

Customer churn rate = Number of Customers Lost / Starting Customers x 100. Revenue churn rate = MRR Lost from Churned Customers / Starting MRR x 100. These can differ when higher- or lower-value customers churn at different rates.

Gross revenue churn counts only lost revenue. Net revenue churn (or net revenue retention, inverted) accounts for expansion revenue from remaining customers. A company can have 5% gross revenue churn but -2% net revenue churn if expansion from existing customers exceeds the churn β€” meaning the existing customer base grows in value over time.

Churn analysis should segment by customer type, plan level, tenure, and acquisition channel. Common patterns include: higher churn among smaller customers, lower churn among customers using more features, higher churn in the first 90 days (activation failure), and seasonality in certain industries.

For FP&A teams, churn is a critical input to revenue forecasting and LTV calculations. A 1% monthly churn rate implies an average customer lifespan of 100 months. Reducing this to 0.8% extends average lifespan to 125 months β€” a 25% increase in LTV from a seemingly small improvement.

UK SaaS benchmarks suggest that best-in-class B2B companies achieve monthly customer churn rates below 1% (annual churn below 12%). SMB-focused businesses typically see 3-5% monthly churn. Consumer subscriptions may see 5-10% monthly churn.

Real-World Example

A UK SaaS company starts the quarter with 500 customers generating Β£400K MRR. During the quarter, 25 customers churn (Β£22K MRR lost) and 15 downgrade (Β£5K MRR reduction). Customer churn is 5% (quarterly). Gross revenue churn is 6.75% (quarterly). However, expansion from remaining customers adds Β£30K MRR, so net revenue churn is actually negative: the existing base grew by Β£3K MRR.

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FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions