Example

Q2 Reforecast Example

A 95-person healthcare company in Bristol with £7.5M revenue. After Q1 actuals came in 8% below budget on revenue, the CFO is conducting a Q2 reforecast. The reforecast updates the full-year outlook while preserving the original budget as a baseline for performance measurement.

Example data

Financial model

P&L Line
Original Budget
Q2 Reforecast
£ Change
% Change
Revenue
£7,500k
£7,050k
(£450k)
-6.0%
Gross Profit
£4,875k
£4,583k
(£292k)
-6.0%
Total OpEx
(£3,900k)
(£3,750k)
+£150k
+3.8%
EBITDA
£975k
£833k
(£142k)
-14.6%
EBITDA Margin
13.0%
11.8%
-1.2pp
--
Year-End Cash
£1,200k
£1,080k
(£120k)
-10.0%
Revenue

The 6% revenue reduction reflects Q1 underperformance (8% below budget) partially recovered in the forward forecast. Two delayed NHS contracts are now expected to close in Q3 rather than Q2.

Total OpEx

Cost mitigation of £150k comes from three actions: (1) defer 2 planned hires from Q2 to Q4, (2) reduce paid marketing by £40k, (3) renegotiate two software contracts saving £25k annually.

EBITDA

Despite the revenue miss, EBITDA is only 14.6% below the original budget (£142k). Quick cost action preserved two-thirds of the margin. The reforecast EBITDA margin of 11.8% is still healthy.

Formulas

Key formulas

fxReforecast Revenue = Q1 Actual + Revised Q2-Q4 Forecast

Q1 actuals (£1,680k vs £1,875k budget) anchor the reforecast. Forward quarters are revised down 4% from original budget to reflect the softer demand environment.

fxOpEx Savings = Original OpEx - Reforecast OpEx

The reforecast includes £150k of cost savings: deferred hiring (£85k), reduced marketing spend (£40k), and renegotiated contracts (£25k). These actions partially offset the revenue shortfall.

fxEBITDA Impact = Revenue Shortfall - Cost Savings

Revenue drops £450k but OpEx is reduced by £150k, resulting in a net EBITDA impact of £142k (after adjusting for the GP margin effect on the revenue shortfall).

Analysis

What makes this example good

Original budget preserved as the performance baseline
Reforecast combines locked actuals with revised forward estimates
Cost mitigation actions are specific and quantified
The "bridge" from budget to reforecast is clearly explained
Cash impact quantified alongside P&L for complete picture

Customisation

How to adapt for your business

1

Add a quarterly phasing view showing when the variances land

2

Include a "risks and opportunities" table for further variance potential

3

Add a scenario overlay showing what happens if Q2 also underperforms

4

Include the specific actions taken (deferred hires, reduced spend) as line items

5

Track reforecast accuracy over time to improve future planning

Common variations

  • --Quarterly reforecast process (Q1, Q2, Q3) with increasing accuracy
  • --Revenue-only reforecast for sales-sensitive businesses
  • --Continuous reforecast updated monthly rather than quarterly
  • --Board-focused reforecast presentation with strategic implications

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

A reforecast is warranted when actuals deviate materially from budget (typically 5-10% or more on revenue or EBITDA) or when external conditions change significantly. Many companies do routine quarterly reforecasts regardless of performance to maintain an accurate forward view.

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